Global cotton production is projected to fall by 4% in the 2026/27 season to 24.8 million tonnes, according to the March 2026 edition of Cotton This Month. Cotton consumption during the same period is expected to remain relatively steady at 25.0 million tonnes.

Several factors are contributing to the projected reduction in production, including lower cotton prices, changing planting intentions in major producing countries, and weaker demand, particularly from China. With production currently exceeding consumption in the 2025/26 season, the expected decline in output during 2026/27 could bring global supply and demand closer to balance.

China is projected to continue as the largest global producer and consumer of cotton. However, its cotton usage is expected to decrease slightly as manmade fibers expand their share in the market.

India, Brazil, and the United States are expected to remain significant contributors to global cotton supply. At the same time, Bangladesh and Vietnam are anticipated to continue as key import markets driving global demand.

Global trade in cotton lint during the 2026/27 season is projected to reach 9.6 million tonnes. Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the largest exporter, followed by the United States.

Recent developments in trade policy are also influencing the outlook for the global cotton market. New tariff measures introduced by the United States and updated trade agreements involving Bangladesh, India, and the European Union may add uncertainty to international cotton trade. The overall impact of these measures will depend on their implementation and the response of the market.