India’s cotton economy is set to witness a marginal tightening in the 2025-26 season (October–September), with production estimated at 290.91 lakh bales (170 kg each), down from 297.24 lakh bales in 2024-25, according to the latest estimates by the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC).

The dip in output comes despite a near-flat acreage of 114.82 lakh hectares compared to 114.84 lakh hectares in the previous season, indicating that the decline is primarily yield-driven. National average yield is projected to fall to 430.72 kg per hectare from 440.01 kg per hectare, reflecting uneven crop performance across key growing regions.

A closer look at regional trends highlights a mixed picture. The northern zone is expected to see production decline to 31.15 lakh bales from 33.77 lakh bales, as both Punjab and Haryana register lower output alongside reduced yields. Rajasthan remains relatively stable, cushioning the overall drop in the region.

The central zone, which accounts for more than half of India’s cotton output, is projected to produce 155.15 lakh bales, down from 160.65 lakh bales last season. Within the region, Gujarat is expected to see a notable fall in production to 66.08 lakh bales from 71.57 lakh bales despite an improvement in yield, largely due to reduced acreage. In contrast, Maharashtra, the largest cotton-growing state, shows a significant jump in output to 78.91 lakh bales from 73.73 lakh bales, driven by better yields and relatively resilient crop conditions. However, Madhya Pradesh is likely to witness a sharp decline in production due to a steep fall in yield.

The southern zone offers some support to overall supply, with production estimated to edge up to 95.57 lakh bales from 94.04 lakh bales. Telangana continues to lead the region with output rising to 60.84 lakh bales, although yields are slightly lower. Andhra Pradesh is also expected to post gains, while Karnataka may see a decline in yield impacting output despite higher acreage. Tamil Nadu remains a marginal contributor.

On the supply-demand front, total cotton availability for 2025-26 is projected at 383.41 lakh bales, slightly lower than 386.11 lakh bales in the previous season. Opening stocks are estimated at 45.50 lakh bales, while imports are expected to rise sharply to 47 lakh bales from 41.40 lakh bales, reflecting the need to bridge the gap created by lower domestic production.

Domestic consumption is expected to remain stable at around 312 lakh bales, with non-MSME mills accounting for 217 lakh bales and MSME units consuming about 95 lakh bales. Non-textile use is estimated at 16 lakh bales. The steady consumption outlook suggests continued resilience in the domestic textile value chain despite global uncertainties.

Exports, however, are projected to decline significantly to 12 lakh bales from 18.07 lakh bales in 2024-25. The drop points to tighter domestic supply as well as reduced competitiveness of Indian cotton in the global market, possibly due to price dynamics and quality factors.

As a result, closing stocks are expected to fall to 43.41 lakh bales from 45.50 lakh bales, indicating a modest tightening of the balance sheet. While the overall supply-demand situation remains broadly balanced, lower production, higher imports and reduced exportable surplus suggest a more inward-looking cotton market in the coming season.